Some Of This Year’s Biggest Oscars Races Are Still Wide Open, And Social Media Is Buzzing

The 97th Academy Awards is set for Sunday, with some potentially milestone moments in store, and for the first time in what seems like years, no one really knows what to expect.

The four biggest award categories — Best Picture, Director, Actor and Actress — are all wide open in one of the most dramatic Oscars races in recent memory.

“My bet: ‘The Brutalist’ or ‘Anora’ wins for Best Picture,” says Seth Schachner, Founder and Managing Director of Strat Americas. “The Bob Dylan picture ‘A Complete Unknown’ could surprise, as might ‘Conclave’, which has upset some audiences given its depiction of Pope.”

“The Brutalist,” a postwar drama about a Hungarian architect in the U.S., was considered an early frontrunner for the top award. Since then, however, “Anora” has won three of the four Hollywood guild awards — from the Writers Guild, the Directors Guild, and the Producers Guild. At the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, “Conclave” took the prize.

In 2006, “Brokeback Mountain” won the same three guild awards and became the only film to do so and lose the Oscar. The Academy Award instead went to “Crash,” which had won at the SAG Awards.

Despite early buzz around “Emilia Pérez,” controversy surrounding star Karla Sofía Gascón has likely muted its chances, according to Schachner.

“Netflixs ‘Emilia Pérez’ is likely to lose out as its transgender star made obnoxious tweets years ago, but aggravated the controversy, which is now totally overshadowing an ambitious picture,” he said.

Looking to Best Actress, Demi Moore is a heavy favorite for her performance in “The Substance,” particularly on the betting markets, but some critics have argued the campy body horror film doesn’t stack up, suggesting her memorable acceptance speech for the Best Actress Golden Globe could be swaying voters toward her.

“Demi Moore might cause controversy if she wins Best Actress for ‘The Substance’, as some would call it Hollywood favoritism,” Schachner says.

This year’s Oscars, hosted by Conan O’Brien at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood, featured delays in voting and some changes to the schedule due to the recent L.A. fires, and in an unusual turn, there will be no live performances for Original Song.

While the Oscars has struggled for ratings in recent years, interest still seems high on social media.

“The Oscars are still struggling to keep its TV audience, but look to social media (TikTok) as its probably bigger than ever if one takes in all the digital attention,” Schachner says.

The Oscars will be televised live at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC, and streamed live online on Hulu.